Goldman Sachs increases probability of US recession to 30%

Goldman Sachs increased its forecast for the likelihood of a US economic recession over the next 12 months to 30%, up 5% from earlier estimates, citing the sharp rise in oil and gas prices.

 

The bank expects US GDP to grow at a slower-than-usual pace in H2 2026, with growth projected between 1.25% and 1.75%.

 

Goldman Sachs continues to anticipate two Federal Reserve rate cuts in September and December this year.

 

Meanwhile, Chief Economist Jan Hatzius raised his baseline forecast for the US unemployment rate to 4.6% by the year-end, amid energy price shocks, tightening financial conditions from the Middle East conflict, and the fading effects of last summer’s tax law.

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