Fitch sees oil prices above $100 in coming weeks

Logo of Fitch Ratings

Fitch Ratings has upgraded its 2026 oil and gas market outlook to "improving" from "neutral," driven by high crude prices, which it believes will remain above $100 per barrel over the coming weeks.

In a report published today, June 8, the rating agency projected Brent crude to average $87 a barrel this year, compared to $68 in 2025. This should be under a scenario assuming the closure of the Strait of Hormuz persists until the end of July.

Fitch noted that prices would be lower if the blockade ends earlier, and higher if the waterway remains closed beyond that date.

The agency also expects Brent crude to fluctuate between $100 and $110 a barrel during June and July due to the Strait of Hormuz closure, before dropping to around $70 by September.

Furthermore, Fitch believes production will recover rapidly once the strait reopens, given the absence of physical damage to oil infrastructure. Stored oil on tankers and onshore facilities will be sold first, followed by the resumption of shut-in production.

It added that output will gradually rise to near-normal levels within a few weeks, depending on the region's geological nature and producers' ability to manage output in line with OPEC quotas, with the market returning to an oversupply during the fourth quarter of the year.