Goldman Sachs cuts year-end gold price forecast

Gold bars

Goldman Sachs has lowered its year-end gold price forecast after revising its expectations for US monetary policy, with the Federal Reserve now no longer expected to cut interest rates in 2026.

Analysts at the US investment bank said in a note that they reduced their forecast for gold by $500 per ounce to $4,900. However, they still expect gold prices to rise during the second half of the year, albeit at a slower pace than previously anticipated.

The analysts explained that the downgrade reflects weaker expected inflows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs), after the bank’s economists pushed back their forecasts for US rate cuts to June and December of next year. Previous projections had pointed to rate cuts in December 2026 and March 2027.

If the Federal Reserve raises interest rates instead, Goldman Sachs analysts expect demand for gold as a macroeconomic hedge to weaken more persistently, which could see the metal fall to $4,400 per ounce by year-end.