UBS sees gold reaching $5,000 in H1 2027

Central bank purchases remain a key pillar of the bank's bullish outlook for gold.

UBS expects gold prices to rise to $5,000 per ounce during the first half of 2027, driven by several structural factors that are expected to strengthen the precious metal appeal over the medium and long term.

Despite this outlook, the bank believes gold prices remain exposed to short-term volatility risks, according to a research note released on Thursday.

UBS expects US inflation to ease gradually, which could allow the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged through this year before resuming rate cuts in 2027. Such a scenario would likely weigh on treasury yields and the US dollar while supporting demand for gold.

The bank also expects central bank purchases of the precious metal to remain strong, forecasting acquisitions of between 750 and 1,000 tons this year, following purchases of 289 tons in the second quarter.