MOF sees 12.8% GDP Growth in 2027

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The Ministry of Finance (MOF) forecasts Saudi Arabia’s real GDP to grow 12.8% in 2027, following an estimated 3.6% contraction in 2026.

According to the economic indicators in the preliminary 2027 budget statement, the ministry expects real GDP growth to slow to 3.9% in 2028 before accelerating to 5.7% in 2029.

The sharp rebound forecast for 2027 follows an expected 3.6% contraction in the Saudi economy in 2026, driven by a projected 21.8% decline in oil activities, while non-oil activities are expected to grow 3.2%.

The government initiatives to ensure stable oil supplies and supply chains are supporting growth in both oil and non-oil activities and could gradually ease inflationary pressures in 2027 and over the medium term, the statement added.

The ministry’s forecast is significantly above the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) estimate cited in the same statement.

Based on July 2026 estimates, the IMF expects Saudi Arabia’s economy to grow by around 5.5% in 2027.